Global Trends 2030 (commentary)
A report from the National Intelligence Council from the US Intelligence Community regarding the major trends they believe will contribute to the state of the world in 2030. Below is a link to the document.
This is a summary of the document in its own words
Individual Empowerment - Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances.
Diffusion of Power- There will not be any hegemonic power. Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.
Demographic Patterns - The demographic arc of instability will narrow. Economic growth might decline in “aging” countries. Sixty percent of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas; migration will increase
Food, Water, Energy Nexus - Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others.
Crisis-Prone Global Economy - Will global volatility and imbalances among players with different economic interests result in collapse? Or will greater multipolarity lead to increased resiliency in the global economic order?
Governance Gap - Will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead of being overwhelmed by it?
Potential for Increased Conflict - Will rapid changes and shifts in power lead to more intrastate and interstate conflicts?
Wider Scope of Regional Instability - Will regional instability, especially in the Middle East and South Asia, spill over and create global insecurity?
Impact of New Technologies - Will technological breakthroughs be developed in time to boost economic productivity and solve the problems caused by a growing world population, rapid urbanization, and climate change?
Role of the United States - Will the US be able to work with new partners to reinvent the international system?
Stalled Engines - In the most plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase. The US draws inward and globalization stalls.
Fusion - In the most plausible best-case outcome, China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global cooperation.
Gini-Out-of-the Bottle - Inequalities explode as some countries become big winners and others fail. Inequalities within countries increase social tensions. Without completely disengaging, the US is no longer the “global policeman.”
Nonstate World - Driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges.-
The big lacuna in all of this analysis is quite clearly the Food, Water, Energy Nexus. All States and Non-State Actors will want to be in a position to benefit from this personally and financially. This can only be achieved through power and hegemony.
The Power and Hegemony of the traditional superpowers is quite clearly threatened by the following concepts:
The utility of Individual Empowerment is an ambiguous concept. As they state in the report, the rise of the global middle class may lead to hostile non-state actors having greater access to potentially dangerous weapons that threaten our society and our infrastructure: cyber crime, nuclear, chemical and biological weapons etc.
Rising demographic patterns: the migration crisis has already caused instability in Europe; consequently, the rise of nationalist and populist governments are a result of the tensions between native citizens and the influx of migrants.
Based on the assumption that the major task of State and Non-State Actors will be securing dwindling Food, Water and Energy resources, it seems readily apparent that the Global Economy and Regional Instability will be volatile, as Globalists (or certain States) attempt to shift into a worldwide hegemony, or at least to the top of the pile followed by a rapidly chasing group of nation states and non – state actors.
The world will likely descend into a range of global and nationalist governments. Nationalist governments will become more common as Nations attempt to protect their own citizens interests in terms of race, culture and survival.